The COVID19 cases rise has left the economies of many countries looming in the dark. Recession for several countries had already begun late in 2019 and has further continued into the first quarter of 2020. With complete lockdown and with best of the measures in place by the Government and the International fraternity the economies of several countries has been nearing a recession let alone see a recovery.
COVID19 fears led to shut down of entire economies and countries. It led to a panic situation wherein the country had to produce packages for stimulus and bail out packages which further added to the burden of deficit on the current account of most countries. With the supply chains disrupted, the Indo- China tensions and lack of motivation of the public to invest further coupled with lack of demand is going to make recessionary phase last as a U than a V.
With the rolling out of drug for corona virus the market has picked up, but whether the drug will work or not and its availability is still to be checked. Therefore it is important for people to still maintain social distancing and practise hygiene therefore not many people are still willing to take the risk of going out and making money or even going for jobs.
Countries like India may see a recovery but it will take some time until it fully recovers. In India the healthcare system is known to not be world class. In India and China especially the a second wave of very high cases is a fear that could loom over the heads of the people hence a second drop in the recessionary cycle is also possible. It is called a double dipping recession and thats why the recovery of India and China seem to be of a W or a U shape.
The recovery will therefore happen but a slower pace and will see some dips before it completely leads to recovery.
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