Will Trump Be reelected?

President Trump has been on a losing side since the fears of COVID19 has paralysed the economy. Since he was elected in 2015 to the White House,he has made sure he maximises his focus on himself. After the Lafayette square incidence which offended Christians where the President used the Bible around as a prop, Rather than being in command Mr. Trump seemed desperate. When power is based on appearances it can slip away easily.

Before COVID hit America, Mr Trump looked likelier than not to be reelected, thanks to a relentlessly growing economy. Incumbent presidents almost always win in such circumstances. Our election model made him a narrow favourite, even though he was a few points down in national polls with his rival, Joe Biden. However, the president is now in a deep hole.

Mr. Biden is now up by 9 points, He is already doing well in battleground states like FLorida, Michigan and Wisconsin, and he has strong support among older voters and is doing surprisingly well among white voters who did not go to college. Our model now gives MR. TRump only a roughly 10 % chance of winning. The virus has deomstrated something definitively to a large number of persuadable voters: that Mr. Trump is just not that good at being a President

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