Retail Inflation at an all time high

    With the economy in  complete lockdown and the world going through  worst affected lockdown in known memory, it is almost incomprehensible as to how the new normal will be post the civd situation. China has already gone through series of opening the economy but it is only running at a 90 percent capacity. What that means for the Chinese is that important parts of the economy is still missing and that they will have to wait for sometime for it to completely come back to normal as the hotel occupancy is down by 50 percent,  75 percent fewer people fly and  consumer footfall is down by nearly 50 percent. In Denmark and Sweden where there was never a complete lockdown too, the consumption has gone down by almost half as now in restaurants and shops people have to maintain a social distance and its even more difficult to have a normal restaurant or store visit. Governments have stepped in to try and keep the economy afloat, however as the lockdown ceases ...

Economic recovery will be a slow but a steady process for most countries. Some countries may take longer than the others and some even longer than them. Most countries such as China which are determined to prove a point to the world will open up faster than the others. China today operates at 90 percent. Though everyone has gone back to work peoples social lives are still at stake as people are not going out and meeting friends or socialising that much. China's GDP is sure to come back to normal sometime soon but the rate of unemployment is still going to be extremely high discretionary spending has gone down and thats where the service industry lies.  Supply chains of most companies was already disrupted with the tariffs of the trade wars being on, now its gone much further therefore since the recovery of supply chains is a far fledged scenario, most supply chain will continue to remain disrupted which will affect the economies of mainly import oriented economies as well as ex...

After the covid situation everyone is wondering how to make their economies local. All economies around the world are trying to de risk their supply chains and take their economies free of foreign trade and encumbrance.  It is also a way to protect your country from trade wars.  Theres going to be a lots of focus on digitisation. Most services like education, physical training are going to go digital.  rates of interest are going to be extremely low. The demand for social insurance os going to be very high as populations of people  have realised how it is important to have a strong social security and extremely strong healthcare systems. The need to have a strong people driven Government will be the need of the future. In the past theres has been localised shocks which have affected the supply chains and consumption patterns of countries, however they have never been a structural change.  The ability or willingness  of people to travel or go digital are...

We are now into a negative migration post COVID. They only migration that is allowed today is repatriation that is people going back to their countries of origin. We have forced this to happen post COVID as people feel safer with their families and sometimes can no longer afford to stay in the Immigrant country as either they are too expensive to live in as without work its very difficult to afford these countries or the health care is too expensive. Therefore most people want to go back to their countries of origin. For the first time since the history of mankind migration has been negative. Stability being the most important factor for all migration traditionally people have moved across nations in order to get stable economic, medical, housing and educational needs satisfied. People move to USA not for its health care but for opportunities. However a lot of people from USA move to Canada just for free healthcare and educational facilities. There are spots in Thailand and Bali whe...

With Presidential election around the corner, 2 months into the pandemic and the number of cases showing no signs of relief, shut downs, a divided congress cant say whether it wants to do much to help the Americans or the World. There is still no sight of the vaccine, it could be months or even years away from coming into fruition. Compelled with the question of who gets it first will also be another challenge. The Stimulus did very little for the American public to get on with their daily life. There were continuous shut downs and it a knows fact that no business can survive in the long run on its own without having to some incentive by the Government. The Government is surely selling corporate bonds to make up for domestic losses, but it surely has a limit on the same and how lon the lockdowns and woes will last for is a far sighted thing to judge. Every 4 years the sentiment of the population undergoes a decent high until  the one who comes in  power gives away decent p...

After the COVID situation most countries have shun China, and Chinese goods, with the already heavy tariffs on Chinese products fro USA, it was getting even more difficult to trade with China. Now due to COVID, most Brands want to shift their production base from China to a more friendly country with ample resources and cheap labour like India, Vietnam and the Philipine. India is bestowed with all the resources and manpower necessary for a good production base. Indians are good craftsmen, industrialists and we have ample resources along with the doctrine of work is worship being embedded in our culture. Indians are not arrogant and usually have a stable family to provide for and to come home to. These reasons couples with incentives given by the Government today in attracting foreign investment and factories will go a long way in creating wha we call the  Make in India dream of the Indian Government come true. Tax holidays and incentivised subsidy plans along with single wi...

During COVID, cash crunch and liquidity problems are the factors that affect each and everyone of us be it  MNCs or the common migrant workers. Liquidity crunch has hit us all as no one is "paying up". People are just delaying payments, be it the renters or GST payments etc. The Vicious cycle of not being able to get payments along with woes of the future and anxiousness about when the economy revive are all factors leading to further instability of the markets. The following are the reasons why one should hold on to ones liquidity. 1)Medical  needs and hospitalisation: During this corona stricken environment it is absolutely essential to hold on to some liquidity if not all as the money available in the market is not only limited but also people are now holding on to their savings and there is very limited free funds for the economy to revive. At such a time any emergency medical expenses should be able to be taken care of. Thus it is important to hold on to some ava...

The Sensex continues to  fall despite the Asian Indices continue to go up in value. The Dow Jones Futures were also pointing to a much higher opening today. Despite strong global cues the sensex continues to fall. There are homegrown domestic concerns that is worrying the investors. 1. The coronavirus cases: The coronavirus cases are still extremely high and continue to increase despite the country of more than a Billion people in continous lockdown for more than a 2 months now.The peak is still far from near and nor has the number of cases gone down.Also a second higher wave of cases after the lockdown eases has also added to the worry. 2.Stimulus Package: The First nor the second stimulus package gave much  economic boost to the people. it only paved way for MSMEs and Migrant workers that too with not much relief. Most businesses are sure to run out of cash and declare bankruptcy and most industries do not seem to do any profit business for at least a year. 3. Goldm...

The world hit by recession and COVID fears amid lockdowns have not only reduced the GDP of most countries of the world but it is expected to be down by more than 8.8 trillion Dollars. the slow down comes despite Government efforts to support the economy, including measures  such as tax cuts and stimulus packages around the world. The US fed has announced another package worth a trillion dollar and so has India, China has opened up its economy too, but fears of another wave of COVID arising in China has led to closedowns of some of its cities in The North of China. Even though Governments around the world look forward to a more home based, self reliant economy. Its going to be goodbye to globalisation and the Governments are going to turn more and more inwards to their own economy. Before COVID at every moment there were atleast 2..2 million passengers on the move from one place to another, with this coming to a stand still it is definitely going to impact economies in a much wor...

Atma Nirbhar Abhiyan- equals Pakistan GDP at 266 Bn higher than GDP of 149 Countries such as Vietnam, Portugal, Greece, New Zealand and Romania. Major lift to manufacture  in India considerable amount of money directed towards bank guarantees to MSME sector refinance facilities and long term tax  break for industries to boost manufacturing.   Similar to the US Fed income  transfers and tax cuts will entail fiscal cost, the latter two( credit guarantees and direct lending). MSMEs which are in good standing with banks will be the most to benefit from this facility. for investment bond. Any extra allocation towards credit guarantee fund will only add to the Govt. contingent liabilities but will surely do good to the fiscal deficit woes. The 20 percent  guarantee the Govt. is extending to the Government to partially guarantee investment should be the  first 20 percent and not the last 20 percent.of the investment which must be guaranteed by the Gover...

The United states of America seems to be the worst affected and now the epicenter of the world as far as COVID Is concerned. More than 2 lakh people have been affected by COVID And more than 3m5 mn people have filed for unemployment benefits from the Government. That means the United states has to release a much bigger stimulus package this time worth USD 2BN to cater to the needs of all the people who have filed for unemployment benefits as well as for catering to the  needs of small and medium size business owners. The first stimulus package only apparently catered to the Big businesses in the US. So where is the US Funding and paying for this stimulus package. It is levying more taxes, and at the same time giving tax cuts to corporate spending in the entertainment industry along with food and beverage industry and hospitality sector. The stock market has now wiped out the losses of 2020 as the citizens of the country have their faith in the Government and the stimul...

We all know what Corona Virus has done to the world. With Malls shut, roads empty, almost 3.5 million affected worldwide it is a catastrophe that the world has never sen before. It has surely changed the way we live and work.The tourism industry is the worst hit and is far from getting back to normal anytime soon. With all this happening the businesses running in the tourism and hospitality sectors now have to look for alternate solutions to run their business. Some countries have come up with a stimulus package for business owners and the others are still contemplating but are far away from realising it. Business owners of Airlines , Hotels and Travel companies must come up with alternate solutions such as investing in other forms of business that are more COVID friendly. Services such as online delivery, online dating and medical equipment along with door to door grocery delivery couold be one of those. If you are on that side of the fence where your business has suffered you need...